The 2024 NFL season is rolling alongside and rookies are making an impression, as they all the time do. From a fantasy perspective, the rookies making the most important waves are the quarterbacks and broad receivers, which isn’t a shock. The primary 14 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft had been all offensive gamers, which was double the earlier file of seven (2021). These 14 picks included six quarterbacks, three broad receivers, one tight finish, and nil working backs (the primary RB wasn’t taken till the center of the second spherical). After choose 14, eight extra receivers got here off the board by the fifth choose of the second spherical.
The parade of latest expertise and potential on the QB and WR positions gave fantasy managers loads to guage this previous summer time. In August, I wrote two items on this Web site concerning the fantasy prospects of the rookie QBs and rookie WRs We’re on the midway level of the NFL season, so I feel it’s a very good time for a follow-up to see how the freshmen are coming alongside. As we speak I’m protecting the first-year WRs, and subsequent week I’ll dive into the QBs. Contemplate this a two-month checkup on the brand new guys.
With three WRs chosen within the first 9 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, and a complete of 11 taken within the fist 37 picks (plus TE Brock Bowers), fantasy managers had been rightly excited concerning the pass-catchers on this class. That was very true as a result of in latest seasons, a number of rookie receivers (and final yr, a few rookie TEs as effectively) have had a really large impression in fantasy. The August piece particulars that, together with the evolution of rookie receivers from “wait a yr or two” to “discover the correct one, draft him at a reduction, and also you might need a league-winner”.
Let’s get to it. I’ll listing the rookie wideouts within the order that I’d need to roster them for the rest of the 2024 season (ROS), and on the finish I’ll give an early tackle the place I see their fantasy draft prospects for subsequent season. I gained’t discuss Bowers, aside from to say that he’s been a extra constant performer, and a greater worth, than any of the rookie WRs. He’s additionally the one fantasy-relevant rookie TE on this class in the mean time.
All rankings and fantasy level totals referenced are for half-point PPR, and are by way of Week 9 except indicated.
Group 1: Set it and neglect it
1. Malik Nabers (present total rank: WR8, 14.5 fantasy factors per sport (FPPG))
I went backwards and forwards on the highest two gamers in my ROS rating, who amazingly had been school teammates final season. Loopy, proper? And their school QB is working away with Offensive Rookie of the 12 months. Let’s Geaux! Anyway, ultimately I put Nabers forward of Brian Thomas, Jr. and a giant purpose for that’s the ludicrous goal quantity he’s getting. Nabers leads the NFL with a mean of 12 targets per sport and is tied for second within the league in whole targets (84), regardless of lacking two video games with a concussion. The primary disadvantage right here is his QB and a sub-par offense that struggles to attain TDs. Issues working in his favor embody constructive sport scripts along with his workforce typically trailing, and a really favorable remaining schedule. The Giants nonetheless have video games in opposition to Tampa, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta, all of whom rank close to the underside in fantasy factors surrendered to opposing WRs. Nabers ought to proceed to provide low-end WR1 numbers, with weekly High-10 upside.
2. Brian Thomas, Jr. (present total rank: WR16, 12.5 FPPG)
When the mud settles, Thomas has a very good shot to be on this yr’s quick listing of gamers who seem on a number of rosters that win 2024 fantasy championships. I used to be excessive on him within the preseason, and people who drafted him within the Spherical 9-10 vary bought nice worth (up to now). Thomas led FBS in TD catches final season with 17, and guess what? His 5 TD catches presently leads all rookies. He’s a legit deep menace (his 17 yards-per-catch (YPC) common is High-10 within the NFL), with a strong-armed QB who likes to push the ball down the sphere. The goal quantity hasn’t been constant sufficient, however the season-ending harm to Christian Kirk ought to result in extra alternative. The one concern right here is his schedule, which is sweet for a couple of weeks however then very tough after that. The Jaguars have two remaining video games with the Titans, plus the Jets, all throughout the fantasy playoffs. Thomas got here into Week 9 battling a chest harm and put up his worst stat line of the season. Higher days are forward for the gifted rookie, who ought to proceed to carry out as a WR2 with upside.
Group 2: Combine and Match
3. Marvin Harrison, Jr. (present total rank: WR 35, 9.6 FPPG)
I can’t put Harrison within the must-start group, given how inconsistent he’s been. Those that took him with a second-round choose can’t be too glad along with his efficiency up to now, and particularly his Week 1 debut (one catch for 4 yards). I warned you, and I’m guessing that loads of fantasy managers didn’t have him lively for his two spike weeks. He’s one of many high “FOMO” gamers proper now. That stated, it’s frequent for rookie WRs to achieve momentum as they get additional into their first season and Harrison profiles as a participant who might emerge as a high-end WR2 down the stretch. Or not. I’m simply as skeptical than I used to be in August. His 20 fantasy factors in Week 8 in opposition to Miami’s robust move protection was encouraging, however within the 4 weeks surrounding that outburst (Weeks 5, 6, 7, and 9) he put up a mixed whole of simply seven catches for 91 yards. Hopefully he will get to must-start standing, however he hasn’t gotten the quantity to be that participant up to now. He has the Jets in Week 10 after which his Bye, however after that the schedule could be very favorable.
4. Ladd McConkey (present total rank: WR 29, 10.7 FPPG)
The priority throughout draft season with anybody on this passing offense was how a lot the Chargers would throw. And certain sufficient, they pounded the ball early within the season. However they’ve had a a lot larger throw charge the previous few weeks, and McConkey has benefitted. He additionally advantages from an unproven receiving corps with no distinguished veterans. He had his finest sport of the season in Week 8 (26 fantasy factors, the second finest WR efficiency of the week), however that was his solely High-15 weekly end of the season. He’s bought WR2 upside and is placing himself within the weekly Flex dialog, however isn’t fairly there but as a weekly must-start in 2-WR leagues. He might get there although if present developments proceed. Having Justin Herbert helps. He’s a main candidate for a really robust second half. His remaining schedule has some enticing matchups.
5. Xavier Worthy (present total rank: WR34, 9.7 FPPG (by way of Week 8))
In my preseason preview of the rookie WR crop, I labeled Worthy because the sort of participant you need in best-ball codecs, and that’s the way it has performed out up to now. He burst on the scene with two TDs in Week 1 (one dashing, one receiving), however has struggled with consistency and hasn’t gotten that many targets or dashing alternatives. The Chiefs have been successful by grinding it out on offense and enjoying stable protection, which hasn’t helped issues. The season-ending accidents to Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice ought to finally open the door to extra probabilities and he did see a season-high eight goal in every of Weeks 7 and eight, which is promising. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins would possibly find yourself serving to Worthy by drawing extra protection away. He’s a menace to attain any time he touches the ball, however he’s arduous to belief in lineups. Nonetheless, I completely need him on my roster, and am glad to roll the cube on him in plus-matchups (like Week 9, vs. Tampa Bay).
6. Keon Coleman (present total rank: WR48, 8.1 FPPG)
Coleman is on the rise, and is one other candidate for a breakout of some type for the remainder of the season. It could have already began, with back-to-back video games with both 100 yards or a TD, and no less than 14 fantasy factors, in Weeks 7 and eight. He solely caught one move n Week 9 nonetheless, though he did contribute a 2-point conversion. That sort of inconsistency is the priority. The Payments had been very run-heavy in September however are actually throwing the ball much more, and the addition of Amari Cooper makes their passing sport that a lot more durable to defend. There are loads of mouths to feed, however what’s good about Coleman is he’s getting focused deep whereas additionally seeing some targets on the goal-line. His 19.0 YPC common is fourth finest within the NFL. Catching his passes from big-armed Josh Allen is clearly an enormous plus.
Group 3: Stash and See
7. Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall, Rome Odunze, and Jalen McMillan
These gamers ought to all be rostered, and could be flexed if you happen to want them, however none are weekly starters in the mean time. Legette will profit from the departure of Diontae Johnson, even when/when Adam Thielen returns. The issue for him is the offense he’s in. Pearsall, whose season simply began two weeks in the past on account of a gunshot incident over the summer time, is in an fascinating place because of the season-ending harm to Brandon Aiyuk. Not like Legette, he’s on an excellent offense that will get the ball to receivers in house, and he’s already proven some playmaking means. Stash him for certain. Odunze is sitting on fantasy benches for all the explanations we anticipated: a number of goal competitors, a rookie QB who’s coming alongside slowly and is tough to belief, and shaky teaching on the offensive facet of the ball. His 100-yard effort in Week 9 is promising, but it surely’s simply his second weekly end contained in the High-50 WRs. McMillan didn’t do loads within the Bucs’ first sport with each Chris Godwin and Mike Evans sidelined, however is value a “wait-and-see” roster spot.
Group 4: Waiver Wire watch listing
Troy Franklin
A.D. Mitchell
Jalen Coker
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Projecting the typical draft place (ADP) of those receivers for subsequent season isn’t simple, as a result of (a) loads can change with them for the rest of this season, and (b) there are loads of unknowns. Who would be the Giants’ and Panthers’ beginning QBs? Will Keenan Allen re-sign with Chicago, and can they’ve a brand new teaching workers? Will the Chargers add a big-name receiver? Every NFL workforce will bear personnel and training adjustments that can have an effect. That stated, right here is my finest guess for the highest 9 guys, based mostly on what we all know now, and the way the primary 9 weeks of their rookie yr has performed out.
This listing is for 12-team re-draft leagues with half PPR scoring.
Spherical 1 – None
Spherical 2 to Early Spherical 3 – Nabers, Thomas
Spherical 3 to Early Spherical 4 – Harrison
Spherical 4 – Odunze and McConkey
Spherical 5 – None
Rounds 6-8 – Coleman, Worthy, Legette, Pearsall
That’s a wrap. Subsequent week I’ll test in on the rookie QBs.
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